Upply

In January, we published three scenarios for container shipping in 2026. Six months on, the market has started to answer. A quick recap of what we laid out: → Scenario 1: a gradual return to Suez, with overcapacity slowly dragging the market into a slump. → Scenario 2: an escalating geopolitical conflict pushing rates back up. → Scenario 3: a return to regulated freight rates in Europe. Here is where mid-year reality stands. Scenario 1 is the one taking shape. Carriers are heading back through Suez, but cautiously. Maersk has reopened full-loop transits on one service while keeping most of its network on the Cape of Good Hope route. A gradual move rather than a clean break. The numbers reflect it: • Upply Asia–Europe Spot Index down around 15% year-on-year • The Red Sea reopening freeing up 6–7% of global capacity into a market already in oversupply • Maersk warning its 2026 earnings could be cut in half The slump is materializing. The outside factor that lifted the market in 2020 (Covid) and 2023 (the Red Sea crisis) has not appeared a third time. The seasonal peak is giving a short-term bump, but it looks more like a pause than a reversal. Which raises the real question for the second half: does Scenario 1 hold through H2, or does an exogenous event flip the market into Scenario 2? [Jérôme de Ricqlès](https://fr.linkedin.com/in/j%C3%A9r%C3%B4me-de-ricql%C3%A8s-764ba0174) and I will go through it in detail next week, and update our scenarios for the rest of the year. 👉 <https://lnkd.in/efypTC_V> …see more [](https://lnkd.in/efypTC_V)